Russian troops achieved success in at least three points along the eastern sector of the Ukrainian front. Russian tactical offensives now occur daily and reflect a new pace on the battlefield. Against this background, military bloggers and analysts describe the reports from the official sources in Kiev about the situation on the front as unrealistic, the American TV channel CNN reported.
One of Russia's main efforts is centered in the Donetsk region, where Russian troops are advancing in eight different locations along the front line, according to DeepState. Elsewhere, about 180 kilometers to the north, Russian troops also made their first successes in nearly three months on the part of the front line in the Kharkiv direction.
At the same time, analysts claim, the Ukrainian authorities do not say what is really happening on the front and create the wrong impression among the population and abroad. Certain representatives of the authorities were even accused of incompetence.
Many Western analysts, as well as Ukrainian officials, see Russia's current escalation as a precursor to a major offensive attempt later this spring. Moscow is also believed to want to take advantage of its significant munitions advantage before US supplies reach the front lines.
Ukraine's DeepState project, which collects and analyzes information from open sources, has addressed criticism of the government. Analysts released a graphic video from the village of Solovyevo of a Russian soldier being killed, but cited the video as an example of how unrealistic the picture of the front is presented by the authorities. For example, they show a video of the killing of a Russian soldier, while trying with such isolated incidents to mask the bigger picture. Russian troops are calmly moving throughout the village, DeepState pointed out, while Kiev is trying to hide this fact.
Ukraine has quantitative problems – but not only in terms of ammunition, but also in manpower. A new mobilization law comes into effect next month and is expected to improve conscription processes. But Kiev refuses to say clearly how many more troops it needs, as Moscow continues to increase their numbers. The quality (of Russian fighters) varies, of course, but the quantitative advantage is a serious problem.
Russian forces are likely to make significant tactical gains in the coming weeks as Ukraine waits for U.S. aid to arrive at the frontline, but they are unlikely to overpower Ukrainian defenses.